Grumpasaurus.com

I don’t normally do horserace stuff, but I figure what the hell… one time won’t hurt

Dem turnout: awesome. The Dems are gonna smear the GOP this year. The Republicans are so dispirited, demoralized, and ashamed (they should be, if they aren’t) that the Dems are going to have a huge money advantage for the first time in the history of ever. Finally.

Obama
Thoughts: good speaker, if you can ignore the manic hands; turnout almost totally in his favor; I still hate his pandering run-to-the-right plus teh GAWD! and “end partisan” shit, but I could handle him as prez; I’m encouraged by the youth breaking for him and what that means for race relations, I’m discouraged that I think the “cool” won over the “best”; rhetoric works well, empty though it may be.

Best part: Michelle. She rocks.

His supporters love this guy. Then again, kids are great for initiating retarded three-syllable chants (actual chants: “USA” and “Obama”… cf. Hillary’s supporters who couldn’t even keep up a tepid “Hi-la-ree!” chant for more than 15 seconds).

Right now? He looks unstoppable. His campaign feels like a movement. The energy difference between Obama and everyone else is huge.

Bonus: the media doesn’t hate him. Yet. I think Chris Matthews gets wood every time he says “Obama.”

His “unity” and “hope” talk does nothing for me. I want retribution. I want to kick some major troglodyte ass, not hold hands and sing kumbaya. I want vengeance for knowing I would be first against the wall for so long.

Concerns: already covered. He’s still black, which hurts in the general election and he’s still running a Clinton/Lieberman strategy with piety thrown in, which hurts with my appreciation. You thought Nixon’s Southern Strategy has poisoned our country? Just wait until November’s ugliness.

Edwards
Thoughts: populist message works well, lots of fight!fight!fight! rhetoric, feels most authentic of the populists. Elizabeth == teh awesome. Health care and jobs focus should score well with the real people (the Villagers be damned). I love that he never concedes anything. Kerry was a wimp. Anyway, he’s got the FDR fighting spirit going for him. Dig it.

You know, I’ve noticed a trend. I’m sensing a trend in that like the spunky speak-your-mind potential first ladies. I liked Teresa Heinz-Kerry more than John. I love Michelle and Elizabeth. More power to the Dems, baby. Outside of Thompson’s baby bird/trophy wife, the other GOP wallflowers haven’t even got out of their burkas.

Concerns: needs more closing vision in addition to the rhetoric; Iraq vote; money; even I am tired of the mill worker talk. Also, the media hates him.

Clinton
Thoughts: dead in the water. From her wooden speaking, the media dislike, uninspiring message, obviously dispirited support, she’s just toast. She outstaffed Obama in Iowa, she spent more than $10M… and still finished third. Add in her pro-war centrism and absolute insiderism and she’s got no chance in a “change” election. I’ll be glad to get her out of the way after typhoon Tuesday.

Media hate hate hate haaaates her. Chris Matthews’ issues with wimmin are in full force every time he mentions her.

Huckabee
Thoughts: his aw shucks conversationalism goes over well with the “who would I like a beer with” crowd; the actual content of his talk brings shivers (of terror and rage) to my spine, and I can hear the vaginas of America preparing for the assault on their sovereignty. High likability factor, hound dog face helps with Matlock Americans.

Bonus: the GOP establishment is freaked the fuck out by Huck and will do anything they can to destroy him. He is the embodiment of the crazy religion wing of the party to whom they pander, but now he’s come out from under his rock. Once the country realizes his views are mainstream among the governing policies of the GOP, they will be diminished for a decade.

Mitt Romney
Thoughts: toast. He’s weird. He has no rapport. He has a wooden ear. Classless (his speech was the same time as Huckabees). The more people get to know him, the more people don’t like that formless freak. Bigtime doofus.

Fun with religion: Mormonism is the fanfic version of Christianity. I’m eagerly waiting for the Furry edition of the Book of Mormon.

Rudy Giuliani
Thoughts: The cousin fucker is starting to look amazingly like Willem Dafoe in Shadow of the Vampire. Compare:
–
Rudy’s thinner now, it was more apparent on TV. Anyway, he’s toast too.
(update: that’s, tm, me, mofo!)

McCain
Thoughts: 4th place in Iowa (behind zomThompson) was good for him. Just ask the media. Everyone is predicting him to end up being the GOP nom, but I’m unconvinced. He’s got huge anger management problems and an ego that will not let him not show the world what a humongous asshole he really is. He’s still an insane warmongering nutjob… but the media lurves him sooooo much. McCain forEVAH!!!!!11!1!

Historical Notes

Year	Dem Winner	GOP Winner	Dem Nom		GOP Nom
2008	Obama		Huckabee	???		???
2004	Kerry		Bush		Kerry		Bush
2000	Gore		Bush		Gore		Bush
1996	Clinton		Dole		Clinton		Dole
1992	Harkin		Bush		Clinton		Bush
1988	Gephardt	Dole		Dukakis		Bush

Not since 1992 has a non-Iowa winner been the party nominee, and not since 1988 has it happened to both parties. Every election is it’s own unique creature, of course, but I thought I’d post the history for interest’s sake. For what it’s worth.